A strong and cold upper level disturbance will slowly approach our area from the west this week in the northern jet stream as the same time that another weaker disturbance approaches our area from the Southeastern United States in the Southern Jet Stream. These two disturbances will combine to form a Nor’easter off the NJ Coast Thursday into Friday.
There will be unusually cold air aloft with the strong upper level disturbance from the Northern Jet Stream that will allow the air to be cold enough on the back side of this developing Nor’easter to allow the rain to change to snow at cloud level starting Thursday afternoon and evening in Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT.
Initially it will be too warm for the snow to reach the ground even though it will be falling from the clouds as snow, so it will melt and reach the ground as rain. However, as the Nor’easter strengthens Thursday afternoon and evening, the precipitation will become heavier in Northeastern PA and Northwestern NJ, which should be enough to cool the atmosphere and allow the snow to reach the ground and start accumulating, first in the higher elevations, and then eventually in the lower elevations as well in Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT.
Below is the latest snow map from the European model ensemble mean (an average of the European model run 50 different ways for various conditions), for Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
And below is the latest snow map from the operational run of the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Of course, there are a lot of variables that still need to be worked out to see if this or something even more interesting is going to happen Thursday into Friday morning, but stay tuned and we will find out together.
Have a wonderful evening…
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